CBB Cover Odds
See the probability of your bet hitting, live
March Madness officially began on Monday with the First Four, the tournament's play-in round that sends the final four at-large teams and four lowest-seeded automatic qualifiers to face off for a spot in the Round of 64. Both games delivered the kind of tension and unpredictability that makes March appointment viewing.
The night's headline was a scorching offensive explosion: Howard hosted UMBC and the two programs combined for 169 points — 25.5 more than oddsmakers projected. NC State and Texas played a grinding defensive battle that finished 23.5 points under the total, a jarring contrast. Favorites went 1-1 on the night against the spread: Howard covered as a 1.5-point home chalk, while NC State became the first upset victim of the 2026 tournament.
Howard 86, UMBC 83 — Howard survived a white-knuckle finish to advance, winning by three and barely covering the -1.5 spread. The over was the cleaner call: with the score 25-31 just seven minutes into the first half, the model was already at 90% confidence the teams would blow past 143.5. They finished with 169 combined — a 25.5-point over.
The cover was a different story. Howard led 83-76 with 53 seconds left and looked safe, but UMBC rattled off 5 straight to cut it to 83-81 with 43 seconds to go — dropping cover probability to 44%. Howard answered with a basket to go up 85-81, UMBC hit again to make it 85-83 with 7 seconds left, and Howard's final make sealed it at 86-83. A two-point cover that felt like a push the entire way home.
Texas 68, NC State 66 — Texas pulled off a First Four upset, knocking off NC State 68-66 to advance to the Round of 64. NC State entered as a 1.5-point favorite and failed to cover. The game was a defensive grind — the actual total of 134 came in 23.5 points under the 157.5 line, one of the bigger unders you'll see in tournament play.