UConn stunned Duke with a 19-point comeback capped by Braylon Mullins' buzzer-beating three, delivering a brutal bad beat to Duke spread backers who peaked at 95.6% cover probability. Michigan demolished Tennessee 95-62 in the early game.

Both favorites trailed at halftime and both stormed back to cover. Illinois erased a 9-0 Iowa start and pulled away late to win 71-59, while Arizona flipped a 7-point halftime deficit into a 15-point rout of Purdue. Both games went under.

The Sweet 16's second night brought two upsets and two covers in four tightly contested games. Tennessee dismantled Iowa State, St. John's built a 9-point second-half lead before Duke stormed back, UConn survived a Michigan State comeback after leading 25-6, and Michigan flipped the script on Alabama after trailing at the half.

Chalk crumbled on Sweet 16 Day 1 as only Arizona covered among the four favorites. Iowa pulled off a stunning comeback from 10 down to upset Nebraska outright, Illinois held Houston to just 55 points in a defensive clinic, and Texas took Purdue to the wire before a buzzer-beating tip-in decided a 79-77 thriller.

Favorites covered in 6 of 8 Round of 32 games on Day 2, but the stories were in how they got there. St. John's saw cover probability hit 94% before a Kansas comeback stole the spread, Iowa knocked off top-seeded Florida outright, and Tennessee survived a 71-70 Virginia lead with two minutes left to cover by 5.5.

Favorites went 5-for-8 against the spread as the Round of 32 opened, but Duke delivered the day's best comeback story — trailing 42-42 with cover probability at just 13% before ripping off a 39-16 run to cover by 10. Texas pulled off the day's biggest upset, knocking off 3-seed Gonzaga outright as an 11-seed.

Favorites dominated Day 2 of the Round of 64, covering in 12 of 16 games — but Kansas backers got burned by the day's biggest bad beat, watching cover probability sit above 90% for ten minutes before Cal Baptist ripped off a 22-4 run. Kentucky needed a 32-foot buzzer-beater from Otega Oweh just to force overtime against Santa Clara.

Three double-digit seeds pulled off outright upsets on the opening day of the Round of 64, headlined by 12-seed High Point's buzzer-beating stunner over 10.5-point favorite Wisconsin and VCU forcing overtime to knock off UNC. Meanwhile, Siena gave Duke all it could handle despite the 28.5-point spread.

Both favorites fell on the second night of the First Four, as Prairie View A&M and Miami (OH) advanced to the Round of 64. Neither spread came close, and the totals split 1-1.

We pulled every first-round game from 2022–2025 — 128 games — and ran the numbers on spreads, totals, and straight-up results for every seed matchup. Here's what to key in on.

The NCAA Tournament tipped off with two First Four matchups — Howard's 86-83 thriller blew the total sky-high, while Texas quietly shocked NC State in a low-scoring defensive grind.

We pulled 25 years of NCAA tournament data and found what actually predicts upsets. Spoiler: tempo and three-point shooting don't matter. Here's what does — and which first-round matchups our model is flagging.

The largest deficits overcome this season — from Duquesne's 30-point first-half hole to road wins erased in real time. Each game includes a win probability chart showing the comeback unfold.

The games where the market was most wrong — ranked by point spread. Cincinnati -22.5 lost. Gonzaga -22.5 lost. Every game on this list was supposed to be decided before tipoff.

The biggest cover margins of the season — games where the closing spread was most spectacularly wrong. Coin-flip favorites that lost by 40. Ranked programs that never showed up.

The 25 games with the highest chaos score — ranked by the size and timing of win probability swings. Buzzer-beaters, miracle comebacks, and tip-ins at the death, with editorial recaps written from play-by-play data.