The 25 highest chaos scores of the season — games with the biggest win probability swings
This one had everything — a chaotic buzzer, double technical fouls, and a 5-overtime's worth of drama crammed into one OT period. Tarleton led by 1 with 10 seconds left when Southern Utah's Jaiden Feroah went to the line — he hit both free throws to put SUU up 92-91. Tarleton ran a counter-alley-oop on the answering inbound; that drew a foul too, and a double-technical followed. McDowell connected on the final free throw to tie it 92-92 and force OT.
Overtime was a track meet. The lead changed hands eight times. With :15 left, Tarleton's Cam McDowell buried a 25-footer to go up 105-103. Southern Utah needed a miracle. Elijah Duval stepped to the line with 2 seconds left, sank both free throws — the first swung home win probability 79 points to 84%, the second sealed it. SUU 106, Tarleton 105. The biggest single free-throw swing in the dataset.
Chattanooga held a 65-59 lead with 1:17 left and appeared to have this one locked up. ETSU's Tate Darner went to work: back-to-back baskets cut it to 65-62, and suddenly the Buccaneers were alive. With 9 seconds left and the score 65-64, Jordan Frison stepped to the line and knocked down both free throws — ETSU led for the first time in the final minute, 65-66.
ETSU's Blake Barkley answered with ice in his veins. Fouled with 4 seconds remaining, he calmly drained both free throws to flip the lead back, 67-66. Momentum swung 40 points on those two makes. Chattanooga had no timeouts and no chance — Barkley's composure delivered one of the cleanest walk-off free-throw sequences of the season.
Nate Ament was simply unstoppable in this double-overtime war in Knoxville. The Tennessee forward finished with 23 points, including clutch baskets in each overtime period to keep the Vols afloat. A&M's Pop Isaacs buried a steal-and-score late in regulation to put his team up 71-69, only for Bishop Boswell to tie it with free throws with 12 seconds left — a 38-point WP swing on a single make.
In the first overtime, Agee's layup knotted it again at 75-75. The second OT was all Tennessee: Ament and Jaylen Carey outscored A&M 12-7 down the stretch. Carey's tip-in with 1:14 left in 2OT gave UT a cushion they never relinquished. Final: 87-82, Vols. This was the deepest college basketball overtime played on one of the season's most-watched stages.
NC A&T entered the final minute trailing by 1. The Aggies tied it at 79-79 on Weluche-Ume's free throw with 1 second left — then gave the ball back to UMES on a Zion Obanla turnover. Somehow, impossibly, NC A&T ended up with possession again.
Lewis Walker caught the ball with 1 second on the clock, no timeout left, and buried a three-pointer from the wing. The ESPN win probability line spiked 48 points in a single moment. 79-82 NC A&T, game over. It's the kind of ending that makes you watch the last 30 seconds three times just to believe it happened.
Two overtimes, a dozen lead changes, and a final sequence that defied belief. UCLA's Donovan Dent engineered comeback after comeback, but Indiana refused to fold. With the score tied 97-97 and no time on the clock in double-overtime, UCLA's Donovan Dent was fouled driving to the basket. Win probability for Indiana: 3%.
Indiana's Trent Sisley stepped to the line — and converted the first free throw. UCLA win probability: 0%. The Hoosiers somehow won 98-97. Lamar Wilkerson led all scorers for UCLA, while Tucker DeVries was rock-solid for Indiana. The Big Ten Network had the broadcast and caught one of the most electric finishes of the season.
Florida State built an 18-point lead and then spent the next 30 minutes watching Notre Dame claw it back. The Irish tied it at 72-72 with 2:47 remaining on a Jalen Haralson dunk, and went ahead 75-72 moments later on Logan Imes' 27-footer. ND looked in complete control with a three-point lead and under two minutes to play.
FSU's Robert McCray V answered with two free throws, then Chauncey Wiggins drilled a clutch 3 with 1:52 left to swing the lead back to the Seminoles at 77-75. Notre Dame couldn't convert from there. FSU iced it with free throws in the final 9 seconds to hold on 82-79 — a stunning reversal from a team that had been written off two hours earlier.
Javontae Campbell scored 47 points and nearly willed Bowling Green to victory on the road — but UMass pulled off the impossible finish. Campbell converted a 3-point play at :05 in regulation to tie it 86-86 and force overtime, then added two more FTs in OT to give BG a 100-96 lead with 22 seconds to play.
UMass' Danny Carbuccia hit a layup to make it 100-98. Josiah Shackelford hit 1 of 2 from the line to push it to 101-98 with 11 seconds left. Then, off a BG miss, Leonardo Bettiol grabbed the offensive board and tipped it in at the buzzer — 101-100. ESPN win probability hit 0% for UMass before that tip. Campbell scored 47 and lost. Bettiol tipped in the game-winner and won. That's basketball.
Two overtime periods, relentless shot-making, and a finish that came down to the final free throws. North Texas' Je'Shawn Stevenson was the hero of OT1, tying it twice — including a three-pointer with 39 seconds left, then a make-1-of-2 sequence that forced the second OT at 79-79.
In double overtime, Rice's Trae Broadnax and Nick Anderson took over. Anderson hit a big three to open 2OT, and Broadnax closed it: two free throws with 13 seconds left pushed Rice to 83-86 (a 27-point WP swing). North Texas got a final look but couldn't convert. Broadnax was the difference in a game where neither team led by more than 4 in the final 15 minutes.
UTEP led 72-69 with the clock at zero in regulation when St. Thomas' Elijah Jones caught an inbound pass and drilled a three-pointer to force overtime. The regulation escape was remarkable enough — but UTEP had more dramatics to deliver.
St. Thomas rallied in OT to tie it at 83-82 with 35 seconds left. UTEP's Jamal West Jr. then made the winning play: with 1 second remaining, he tipped in a miss for an 83-84 lead — a 95-point win probability swing, the largest single moment in any game on this list. UTEP held on. West's tip was the decisive moment in one of the season's most chaotic overtimes.
Kent State led 65-64 with 1 second remaining and the game appeared over. Southern Miss' Isaac Taveras was fouled on the last possession and stepped to the line needing to hit both to win. He did. Win probability jumped 84 points on the first make. Final: 65-66 Southern Miss.
The entire KSU comeback attempt in the final three minutes — clawing from 60-56 to 65-64 — was for nothing in the span of two free throws. Cian Medley had gotten Kent State to the lead with two makes at :07. Taveras erased all of it in an instant. Cold-blooded.
Three overtimes on New Year's Eve. Ben Hammond scored 30 points for Virginia Tech and was the engine behind one of the season's most exhausting games. The game was tied after regulation, OT1, and OT2. In the second overtime, Chance Mallory tipped in a miss at the buzzer — ESPN WP swung 50 points in one moment — to force a third OT.
Virginia's Malik Thomas made a 25-foot step-back with 5 seconds left in 2OT to cut it to 1, but Hammond responded immediately. In the third overtime, Virginia Tech finally broke things open: Hammond's layup with 1:28 left gave VT an 88-83 lead they never surrendered. The Hokies closed it 95-85 on a New Year's Eve game that lasted until nearly midnight.
Eastern Washington led by 8 (65-57) with under 2 minutes left — a seemingly safe margin at any level. Montana ran off 8 straight to tie it at 65-65 with 4 seconds left. The rally included turnovers and steals on both ends, a frantic sequence that turned the game completely upside down.
EWU's Alton Hamilton IV then stepped to the line, fouled with 4 seconds remaining. He hit both free throws. Montana WP had briefly hit 90% on the tie — then crashed to 10% on the contact call. The final swing of 40 percentage points on Hamilton's second make sealed it 66-65. A stunning Montana collapse in under 2 minutes.
Georgia's AJ Storr had a monster second half, scoring back-to-back layups to tie the game with 17 seconds remaining at 87-87 and force overtime. In OT, Ole Miss' Kanon Catchings hit a huge three at 1:52 to take a 91-94 lead — but Georgia answered, tying it again at 95-95 with 10 seconds left on Marcus Millender's free throw.
Then Patton Pinkins happened. Ole Miss got the ball with no time on the clock, and Pinkins tipped in a miss to win 97-95 — ESPN win probability: 0% the moment before it went in. Georgia had two chances to win in regulation and overtime and lost both. The 50-point WP swing on Pinkins' tip is one of the most dramatic single plays of the season.
The first of back-to-back home-and-home slugfests between these two teams that both went double overtime. At Butler, it was Evan Haywood who had the last word: a corner three with 35 seconds left in 2OT swung win probability 19 points and gave Butler a 110-113 lead. Providence's Michael Ajayi had 28 points; Butler's Jason Edwards matched him with 32.
The teams traded leads in every overtime stanza. Butler guard Finley Bizjack refused to let his team die, hitting back-to-back threes in 2OT to keep it close. Providence tied it four different times across the two overtime periods. In the end, Haywood's corner triple was the shot Butler couldn't be caught from.
Providence got its revenge two days later in the rematch. Jaylin Sellers was unstoppable — he scored in every crucial moment over two overtimes and finished with a game-high in scoring. The Friars led 82-88 in 2OT but couldn't put Butler away; Finley Bizjack hit another three to cut it to 85-88 with 1:48 left.
But Providence's Ryan Mela had two huge baskets and Sellers kept converting at the line. The Friars closed it on a 12-2 run in 2OT. 97-87 Providence. Two teams played back-to-back double-overtime games in four days. Both were genuinely insane. The season series had no winner because neither fanbase survived with their sanity intact.
UCLA trailed by 23 points in the first half and somehow found a way to win. The Bruins mounted one of the most remarkable comebacks in Pac-12/Big Ten history, rallying from deep in the hole on the strength of relentless pressure defense and a run that turned a blowout into a one-possession game before halftime was complete.
In overtime, UCLA's Donovan Dent — the same player who starred in the Indiana 2OT game — delivered the ultimate buzzer moment: a driving layup at the horn to win 95-94. The Fox Sports broadcast captured a student section that could barely process what it had just witnessed. Illinois went from dominant to devastated in the span of 25 minutes.
The score doesn't look crazy at first glance — but the play-by-play told a different story. This was a game that swung 20+ points in win probability multiple times in the final 10 minutes, featuring massive runs in both directions and a genuinely uncertain outcome until the final whistle.
Long Beach State's offense ran hot all game long in Big West play, and the late-game chaos kept bettors and fans on edge well past the point where the score should have settled things. One of the best examples this season of how a game can feel completely unresolved even with a double-digit final margin.
Double overtime, and a tip-in at the last possible moment to decide it. North Dakota State's Noah Feddersen made the winning play: with 1 second left in 2OT, he tipped in a miss to give NDSU a 79-77 lead (Δ48 WP swing). ORU's Connor Dow had tied it moments earlier with a three-pointer — the game had been tied or within 2 for virtually the entire second half and both overtimes.
The first OT was a masterpiece of back-and-forth basketball. Yuto Yamanouchi-Williams hit a three to tie it at 64-64 in OT1. Jack Turner tied it again with a tip at :09. Then the second OT: Feddersen's walkoff tip ended one of the most even, closely contested games in mid-major basketball this season.
An Ivy League classic. Cooper Noard had a magnificent two-overtime performance for Cornell, making key baskets and hitting the decisive free throws with 2 seconds left in 2OT to win 95-94 (Δ47 WP on the second make). Colgate's Kyle Carlesimo answered every Cornell punch — his three in 2OT had given the Raiders a 94-91 lead with :15 left.
But Cornell fouled Noard with 2 seconds to play. He hit both. The first tied it at 94-94. The second won it. 97-point WP swing in 2 seconds of clock. Colgate's Josh Ahayere drew the foul call that changed the game, giving Noard a chance nobody expected him to get. He didn't waste it.
Miles Byrd made the three-pointer that sent it to overtime — ESPN WP swung 49 points on that one make (the biggest regulation-closing swing in the dataset). SDSU then went up 2 with :00 in OT1, but Cooper Campbell was called for a foul at the buzzer, and the resulting turnover sent it to double overtime. Win probability swung 49 points again in an instant.
In 2OT, Troy's Thomas Dowd hit a three to go up 105-107 at 1:55. San Diego State's Miles Byrd hit a three to respond. With 15 seconds left, Troy's Theo Seng made the go-ahead layup — 108-107. SDSU ran out of time. Two teams, two overtimes, one of the wildest final-possession sequences of the year.
Jacob Meyer had the play of the game with 4 seconds left in double overtime: a 2-foot dunk off a kick-out pass gave UAB a 109-106 lead that South Florida couldn't overcome. The Blazers needed the heroics after surviving near-disaster multiple times — including USF tying it with :04 left in OT1 on a Quaran McPherson pull-up jumper.
UAB's Chance Westry was the offensive engine with 2 key tip-ins in 2OT, and Ahmad Robinson hit a huge step-back three to keep it within reach after USF went up 4. Meyer's closing dunk came off a steal sequence that started with Salim London's error. UAB wins 109-106 in a game that went the full 50 minutes and then some.
Grand Canyon's Makaih Williams stepped to the line with 1 second left needing both free throws to win. He hit both. Win probability swung 58 points on just the foul call alone, and another 12 on each make. Tae Simmons had given SDSU a 69-68 lead moments earlier on a tip-in layup; Grand Canyon's Jaden Henley immediately grabbed a rebound and drew the foul on the ensuing possession.
SDSU's Reese Dixon-Waters had a chance to put the game away but couldn't convert in the final possessions. Grand Canyon 70, San Diego State 69 — the Lopes' home crowd barely had time to process the miracle before it was over.
Georgia Southern led 70-67 with 3 seconds left in regulation, and the game seemed over. Coastal's Derrick Green caught a full-court inbound pass and scored at the buzzer to tie it 70-70 — one of the more stunning buzzer-beaters of the year. Georgia Southern had led by 3 with zero chance of tying. Then they didn't win.
Overtime belonged to Coastal Carolina's Joshua Beadle, who scored 5 points in the extra period to lead the Chanticleers. Coastal's Rasheed Jones hit two free throws with 3 seconds left in OT to put it away 79-75. From miraculous buzzer-beater to methodical overtime execution — Coastal Carolina had all the cards fall their way.
UC Irvine's Derin Saran tied it twice in overtime to keep the Anteaters alive — including a critical basket with 8 seconds left to force an essentially impossible UNI possession. Northern Iowa's Trey Campbell caught the inbound, drove, and scored at the buzzer. Tied again, 69-69. Campbell was immediately fouled.
Campbell stepped to the line with no time remaining and hit the free throw to win 70-69. Win probability for Northern Iowa went from 0% (after Saran's tie) to 50% (after Campbell's layup) to 100% (after the foul) to complete certainty after the make. A sequence that ping-ponged across the entire probability spectrum in under 8 seconds.
Samford's Keaton Norris hit a 26-foot three with 7 seconds left to give the Bulldogs a 75-74 lead. Win probability swung 48 points. Samford fans started celebrating. ETSU's Blake Barkley — the same player who iced the Chattanooga game the same night — tipped in a miss with 4 seconds remaining to win it 76-75. Win probability swung 92 points in one moment.
Barkley finished with an absurd statistical night across two games: a game-winning tip in Statesboro and a walk-off free throw pair in Chattanooga later that night. The collision of timing and circumstance that produced both Barkley moments on the same January evening is one of the season's great narrative footnotes.